The Ashes arrive with a familiar storyline: Australia as holders, England as hunters, and the urn heading back to the cauldron of Australian venues from Perth to Sydney. The twist this time is that Australia come in off a powerful World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, yet with a fresh scar from defeat in the 2025 final at Lord’s against South Africa.
A Ruthless Test Run — Mostly
In terms of recent form, Australia have every reason to feel confident. Their last full Test series before the Ashes was a demolition of the West Indies in the Caribbean in the summer. That followed a strong WTC campaign in which they reached the final again, underlining their consistency over a two-year cycle.
Even the loss to South Africa in the WTC final, while a setback, came after Australia had done enough over the cycle to top the league table and return to the showpiece match. So, it’s no wonder sports betting odds favour them for the Ashes.
Home Advantage and the Ashes Context
The Ashes themselves add another layer of comfort for Australia. They retained the urn with a 2-2 draw in England in 2023. Now the contest shifts back to Australia, starting in Perth and moving through Brisbane, Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney until early January 2026.
History is firmly in their corner. England have not won an Ashes series in Australia since the famous 3-1 victory in 2010/11, and recent tours have brought heavy defeats for the visitors. Even English great James Anderson has conceded that, despite perceived weaknesses, Australia remain favourites on home soil.
Key Pillars: Battling Core and Seam Depth
Australia’s current Test strength rests on a tried-and-trusted spine. Steve Smith, now standing in as captain for the injured Pat Cummins, remains one of the premier Test batters in the world. Usman Khawaja and Travis Head provide contrasting gears at the top and middle, while Marcus Labuschagne, recalled to open in the WTC final, offers further stability.
With the ball, Australia still boasts a fearsome armoury. Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood bring left-arm skill and relentless accuracy. Nathan Lyon remains a proven match-winner at home, and Scott Boland is widely tipped to step in seamlessly while Cummins recovers from his back injury. That depth means Australia can rotate seamers without significantly weakening their attack.
The Vulnerabilities England Will Target
Yet this is not an invincible side. Cummins’ absence from the first Test removes both their captain and most prolific WTC bowler from the new-ball plans at Perth. Their batting, for all its quality, has occasionally shown fragility when early wickets fall. The middle order, in particular, can be exposed if Smith or Khawaja fail.
England, meanwhile, bring their ultra-attacking “Bzball” mindset and a pace-heavy squad featuring the likes of Mark Wood, Jofra Archer and other quicks chosen specifically to exploit Australian pitches.
Conclusion
Australia, on balance, can keep their good form going, but it’s far from guaranteed. Their recent record, home advantage, and squad depth all point towards a successful Ashes defence.
However, to truly “continue their winning run” rather than merely scrape through, they must manage Cummins’ return carefully, ensure the top order absorbs England’s pace barrage, and maintain their usual discipline in the field. If those pieces fall into place, Australia are well placed not just to retain the urn, but to do so with authority.
